At the time of the publication of this Report, the world is subject to a profound global economic crisis. It is not yet possible to foresee how the economic downturn will affect ICT markets in general and in the developing world, in particular. While most of the recent news are focusing on how the crisis has reduced revenues of telecommunication carriers and operators and forced ICT manufacturers and service providers to cut jobs, the impact on consumers will depend on a number of factors. While network operators may see themselves confronted with limited capital and reluctant to follow through with costly network investments (for example IMT-2000/3G, Wimax or optical fibre networks), the need to keep and attract new customers, and increase market shares and revenues may also increase competition and bring down service prices. It might also encourage and force businesses to increase their attention to developing markets and low-income users, where much lower, yet highly dynamic penetration rates in the last years hint at greater market opportunities.

The dynamics and potential of the developed and developing markets will also depend on how the crisis will alter spending patterns. While higher unemployment rates and lower revenues certainly reduce discretionary incomes, it is the choice of consumers how and in which areas to reduce spending. Depending on the importance they attach to their telecommunication and ICT services, they may, or may not, cut the cord, or give up their mobile cellular or broadband service.

Despite the economic downturn, current global ICT developments are unlikely to change drastically, given the pervasive nature of information and communication technologies. The use of modern telecommunication devices and the Internet will continue. Given the uninterrupted growth in almost all ICT services, a decline in growth rates – rather than an actual reduction in subscriber numbers – seems more likely.

ITU’s subscriber and usage indicators, which were presented in this chapter, provide impartial insights into the growth of certain ICTs and their development across regions. The ICT Development Index (IDI) is based on these, as well as several other indicators that are considered essential (and that are available) in terms of measuring ICT developments. By combining multiple indicators into a single value, the IDI will provide a holistic picture on the state of ICT development within a country. It will allow policy makers to put their countries’ achievements into context, by benchmarking them to other countries at similar income levels, or with similar geographic, social or regional characteristics. Through this, the IDI will also help Governments set realistic targets and track and evaluate developments over time. The sub-indices on which the IDI is based will further provide policy makers with the opportunity to identify strengths and weaknesses and to adapt and develop policies accordingly.

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